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  1. <text id=93AC0040>
  2. <title>
  3. Composite of Economic Cyclical Indicators:1978-92
  4. </title>
  5. <history>
  6. Compact ALMANAC--United States Statistics         
  7.  Corporations                                        
  8. </history>
  9. <article>
  10. <source>Time Almanac</source>
  11. <hdr>
  12. Composite Indexes of Economic Cyclical Indicators: 1978 - 1992
  13. </hdr>
  14. <body>
  15. <table>
  16. <tblhdr><cell>Item<cell>Unit<cell>1978<cell>1980<cell>1985<cell>1990<cell>1991<cell>1992
  17. <row><cell type=a>LEADING INDICATORS**<cell type=a><cell type=i><cell type=i><cell type=i><cell type=i><cell type=i><cell type=i>
  18. <row><cell>Composite index(1)<cell>1982=100<cell>145.8<cell>99.2<cell>124.0<cell>143.8<cell>143.4<cell>98.1
  19. <row><cell>Building permits(2)<cell>1967=100<cell>145.4<cell>96.7<cell>138.1<cell>89.6<cell>75.5<cell>87.7
  20. <row><cell>Common stock prices, index(3)<cell>1941-43=10<cell>96.0<cell>118.8<cell>186.8<cell>334.6<cell>376.2<cell>415.7
  21. <row><cell>Initial claims, unemployment insurance<cell>1,000<cell>338<cell>480<cell>383<cell>383<cell>444<cell>412
  22. <row><cell>Change in sensitive prices(4,5)<cell>Percent<cell>1.0<cell>.4<cell>-.8<cell>-.3<cell>-.6<cell>3.4
  23. <row><cell>Vendor performance, slower deliveries<cell>Percent<cell>64<cell>41<cell>48<cell>48<cell>47<cell>50.2
  24. <row><cell>Average workweek, manufacturing(6)<cell>Hours<cell>40.4<cell>39.7<cell>40.5<cell>40.8<cell>40.7<cell>41.0
  25. <row><cell>Plant & equipment contracts & orders (1982 $)<cell>Bil.dol.<cell>381<cell>361<cell>410<cell>509<cell>489<cell>394
  26. <row><cell>New orders, manufacturing, consumer goods & materials (1982 $)<cell>Bil.dol.<cell>1,024<cell>891<cell>955<cell>1,091<cell>1,048<cell>1,231
  27. <row><cell>Money supply(1982)<cell>Bil.dol.<cell>1,982<cell>1,835<cell>2,224<cell>2,435<cell>2,410<cell>2,813
  28. <row><cell>Consumer expectations index(7)<cell>1966=100<cell>52.8<cell>56.8<cell>86.5<cell>70.2<cell>70.3<cell>(NA)
  29. <row><cell>COINCIDENT INDICATORS<cell><cell><cell><cell><cell><cell><cell>
  30. <row><cell>Composite index<cell>1982=100<cell>144.0<cell>107.2<cell>116.0<cell>131.7<cell>124.5<cell>106.5
  31. <row><cell>Industrial production index<cell>1977=100<cell>106.5<cell>108.6<cell>123.7<cell>109.2<cell>107.1<cell>106.5
  32. <row><cell>Employees, nonagricultural payrolls<cell>Million<cell>86.7<cell>90.4<cell>97.5<cell>109.8<cell>108.3<cell>108.5
  33. <row><cell>Personal income less transfer payments (1982 dol.)<cell>Bil.dol.<cell>2,191<cell>2,233<cell>2,540<cell>3,460<cell>3,382<cell>3,460
  34. <row><cell>Sales, manufacturing & trade(1982 dol.)<cell>Bil.dol.<cell>4,327<cell>4,341<cell>4,863<cell>5,762<cell>5,627<cell>5,905
  35. <row><cell>LAGGING INDICATORS<cell><cell><cell><cell><cell><cell><cell>
  36. <row><cell>Composite index<cell>1982=100<cell>114.0<cell>105.5<cell>107.7<cell>120.0<cell>115.1<cell>97.4
  37. <row><cell>Change in labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing(4)<cell>Percent<cell>9.2<cell>10.5<cell>2.0<cell>1.9<cell>3.1<cell>0.1
  38. <row><cell>Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income<cell>Percent<cell>13.4<cell>13.3<cell>14.5<cell>15.6<cell>15.1<cell>14.3
  39. <row><cell>Average prime rate charged by banks<cell>Percent<cell>9.1<cell>15.3<cell>9.9<cell>10.0<cell>8.5<cell>6.2
  40. <row><cell>Average duration of unemployment<cell>Weeks<cell>11.9<cell>11.9<cell>15.6<cell>12.1<cell>13.8<cell>17.9
  41. <row><cell>Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing & trade(1982 dol.)<cell>Ratio<cell>1.6<cell>1.6<cell>1.6<cell>1.4<cell>1.5<cell>1.61
  42. <row><cell>Commercial & industrial loans outstanding(1982 dol.)(8)<cell>Bil.dol.<cell>207<cell>225<cell>329<cell>402<cell>385<cell>372
  43. </table>
  44. <list style=hang>
  45. <item>** Leading indicators: economic time series that tend to reach their cyclical high and low points earlier than the corresponding peaks and troughs in the overall economy. Coincident indicators: economic time series that tend to reach their cyclical high and low points about the same time as the corresponding peaks and 
  46. troughs in the overall economy. Lagging indicators: economic time series that tend to reach their cyclical high and low points later than the corresponding peaks and troughs in the overall economy. 
  47. </list>
  48. <list style=hang>
  49. <item>1. Beginning with data for Jan. 1984, net business formation has been suspended from this index.
  50. <item>2. New private housing units authorized.
  51. <item>3. Standard & Poor, 500 stocks.
  52. <item>4. Producer price index of selected crude and intermediate materials and spot market price index of raw industrial materials.
  53. <item>5. Weighted 4-term moving average placed at the terminal month of the span.
  54. <item>6. Business and consumer borrowing.
  55. <item>7. Production workers.
  56. <item>8. Actual data as percent of trend.
  57. </list>
  58. <p>Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  59. </p>
  60. </body>
  61. </article>
  62. </text>
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